Impact of English post-18 review in Wales

Welsh higher education policy can sometimes feel like the UK in the Brexit transition period – it feels all the pain of Westminster decisions it very often has no say in.

There is in reality one UK HE market, and each system needs to work to make itself as attractive as possible to stay competitive. But if one part of the UK changes others need to follow.

Science saves Wales?

One option would be for Wales to adopt the Augar pricing structure wholesale Here I’ve modelled this for the £6,500/£13,500 “preview” from the other week.

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Where do Welsh students study?

Wales imports slightly less than half of its students from England – which makes the need to make a rational offer post-Augar even more acute. And, although the majority of Welsh students study in Wales, the number and proportion studying in England is growing and now represents more than a third of all Welsh-domiciled students. Of the four HE sectors in the UK, Wales and England are the most tightly enmeshed and the removal of the Severn Crossing toll suggests that this is unlikely to change.

I’ve plotted the destination of students from different domiciles as a simple national table and, on a second tab, by the local authority of domicile. With Wales being such a net importer of students (Scotland and Northern Ireland are both net exporters), demand for accomodation will continue to grow near popular institutions which suggests another potential revenue stream.

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What do the funders say?

Chief Executive of HEFCW David Blaney told Wonkhe that he was watching developments of the Augar review and funding in England “with interest”.

We know from past experience that what happens east of the border can have an impact on the higher education offer in Wales, and there are certainly areas that need to be explored when the findings of the review become apparent,” Blaney said.

The four systems of HE used to work together well in partnership. However, this arguably has diminished somewhat away since 2017 and the establishment of a very different regulatory regime in England. HEFCW is known for its sensitive and considered interventions in HE and the Welsh sector appears very much to be the system with the most evidence of having been planned.

Blaney continued: “Policymakers in Wales will need to consider the potential consequences once there is more clarity, and respond to them appropriately while continuing to ensure that there is proper investment in the student experience and living costs, and that the priorities of our Welsh Government can continue to be supported.”

Keep talking

There should be – and there surely must be – a line of communication open between the DfE and Wales. Philip Augar has noted on several occasions that he has been impressed with Ian Diamond’s review with numerous meetings between the panel, Diamond, and Welsh HE leaders convened earlier this year. Even if things have soured on a regulator level (surely the worst kept secret in UK HE policy) frequent contact between DfE and the Welsh Government should ensure the system is not simply blindsided.

There’s an income as well as a market consideration here and there is a very strong sense that a cut for English HE coming. Via the Barnett formula, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland will take a bath too – and any savings on fees for students studying in England are (largely) loans not taken rather than reusable money.

It is unlikely that anyone in Wales would be willing to turn back from a progressive and attractive system of student support that is already seeing a healthy impact on part-time and postgraduate enrolments. But it is also not clear where else the money would come from.