Some private schools are more equal than others

That’s the headline finding from a new Private Education Policy Forum report by University of Manchester researchers Tom Fryer, Kathryn Telling and undergraduate student Liv Shaw.

The team looked at 30 schools belonging to the Heads’ Conference (HMC) – the membership body for many of England’s most prestigious private schools – and split them into three groups by fee income. The groups included ten of the wealthiest boarding schools, ten of the wealthiest day schools, and ten of the least wealthy day schools still inside the HMC.

They tracked where each school’s leavers ended up in 2024, ranked using the Times Good University Guide 2025, and set the results against Independent Schools Council (ISC) averages for the wider private sector.

The gaps are stark.

An average of 15 per cent of leavers from the wealthiest day schools went to Oxbridge, against 1.7 per cent from the least wealthy day schools – wealthy-school leavers were around 15 times more likely to reach Oxbridge than their state-educated peers. It’s not just about Oxbridge though. And it starts well before admissions. This week’s A-level results show privately-educated candidates had a 59 per cent chance of an A or A* in maths this year, against 40 per cent at state schools and just 22.1 per cent at FE colleges, before anyone’s even applied to Oxbridge.

Leavers from the wealthiest schools were also more likely to land at a wider “top 25 university” – 64–68 per cent, versus 51 per cent at the least wealthy day schools – and far less likely to end up outside the “top 50” altogether.

Just 3.4 per cent of leavers from the wealthiest schools missed the “top 50,” compared with 13.9 per cent from the least wealthy day schools and around 13 per cent across the ISC. Measured against the most recently available state-school comparator (2020-21 HESA data, so not an exact like-for-like), that’s roughly a 15-times gap between the wealthiest private leavers and their state-educated peers too.

Whilst the sample is small, it is deliberately unrepresentative – the researchers picked schools to show the range within the sector, and their method – scraping school websites and accounts – probably favours schools keen to publicise strong destinations.

It’s also worth asking whether Oxbridge access is really the right yardstick for “success” at all. The report notes that some leavers who don’t crack the “top 50” land at highly selective specialist providers – the Courtauld Institute of Art for example – that don’t feature in mainstream league tables but are far from a consolation prize.

Liv Shaw, one of the report’s authors and a state-educated student from the North East, points out that none of the sampled schools were based there, despite the researchers’ attempts to include some. It’s a reminder that elite private education is itself geographically concentrated: eight of the ten wealthiest day schools in the sample are based in London.

That regional picture is worth holding up against the government’s own devolution push. Andy Burnham’s No10 North initiative has already handed mayors more control over 16-19 technical education routes. Whether that funding shift can widen access to academic pathways for pupils in less advantaged regions, rather than just strengthening technical and vocational ones, remains a live question.

The report itself stops short of sector recommendations, but Shaw’s own reflections are worth reflecting on. Future research that tracks destinations by bursary status, race and disability would tell us far more about who within the private sector is actually benefiting.

And there’s a parallel question for policymakers. New education secretary Lucy Powell inherits a widening-participation agenda that has mostly focused on the state-private divide. This report suggests she’ll also need to reckon with the gap opening up inside the private sector itself – and with the guidance and encouragement gap that keeps many pupils, state and private, from ever seeing certain universities as an option in the first place.

And of course institutions have a role here too: resetting expectations can’t start on results day, it has to start well before students arrive.