The work of PA News’ marvellous data journalist Will Grimond means that every local news outlet now has a piece outlining how disadvantaged young people in a given local authority area are less likely to go to university – here’s the Bolton variant on Manchester World.

He’s been playing with the Department for Education release of “progression to higher education or training” data for 2020-21 (although, somewhat confusingly, this actually refers to the activities of the cohort that finished level 3 study in 2018-19 over the two following years). At local authority level you can see a little more detail – with information on generalised progression (sustained – 6 months plus – engagement at any post-compulsory training), sustained attendance at Oxbridge (Oxford or Cambridge), a Russell Group institution (one of 24 self-selecting providers who have joined a mission group) or the “top third” of universities (based on average UCAS tariff).

Here’s every single one of Will’s articles in one chart:

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About the data

The purpose of this article isn’t just to highlight the importance of data journalism to local news, or to give Will Grimond a long overdue shout-out, but to consider the way in which higher education data is often shorn of context for popular consumption.

Fundamentally, the government should not be making a “good university” judgement in national statistics – and if it does it should be a lot more nuanced than the three measures of what we could politely call historic esteem. Oxford and Cambridge are very good universities if you enjoy a particular type of study that relies on independent work, the Russell Group might be good for you if you are interested in a career in academic research (they do more of it there than in most places). The “top third” of universities are simply those that are able to set higher entry grades because of the volume of applications they get. Even the raw “progression” score privileges further training of any sort over direct entry employment – somewhat at odds with a government trying to sell vocational level 3 courses that lead directly into the workplace.

Coming to these statistics cold you would see a local schools system scoring low on these measures as “failing”, without taking into account differences in local conditions, or pupil aspirations.

There’s also a statistical effect – best seen in the stratospheric performance of Rutland – where smaller cohorts are more likely to display odd behaviour. Rutland has a single post-16 provider (Harington School) that educates the majority of young people within the county. Harington is clearly a decent school, but it also has a tiny population of students on free school meals which means that performance comparisons are a bit silly.