2024 UCAS cycle, 28 days after JCQ results day
David Kernohan is Deputy Editor of Wonkhe
Tags
Today completes the 2024 UCAS cycle, a process that has yielded the highest number of applicants and the highest number of placed applicants from UK-domiciled 18 year olds on record.
In other words, and as UCAS’s Ben Jordan goes through on the site this morning, we have a picture very different from the pessimistic prognosis offered by some commentators at the start of the year. UK applications, overall, were higher than in any year other than the postpandemic boom of 2022. UK students, both generally and specifically among 18 year olds, were as likely to take up their firm or insurance offer as in any pre-pandemic year.
However, this was not a return to normal patterns. There was a huge rise in the number of students taking up places at higher tariff providers – very much a return to examishambles numbers among UK applicants, alongside a small rise in the number of international students. There’s been any number of rumours around this, with stories of students “poached” from low tariff providers with surprisingly low offers – we’ll be able to judge the truth or otherwise of these stories when we get provider level end of cycle data in mid January.
Notable also from this chart is the “shape” of clearing – you will note that numbers of proportions of 18 year olds taking up firm or insurance places stayed broadly similar between results day and day 28 (there was a slight rise among mature students). When applicants were certain, it appears they were really certain – which suggests a change in initial offer making behavior among high tariff providers, perhaps alongside a response to competitive clearing.
It is particularly striking that acceptances for this group of providers grew among UK students. The accepted wisdom (as per TRAC data and sector lobbying) is that most providers lose money on every UK undergraduate they take in. How exactly this scales is open to debate – I am sure that there are efficiencies to be made somewhere. The 2021 NSS bore testament to the impact of overcrowding on the student experience last time high tariff numbers grew at this rate.
The entry rate for English 18 year olds hailing from IMD quintile one (the most disadvantaged parts of the UK) grew by 0.8 percentage points this year – very slightly above the overall 0.6 percentage point growth, which itself is no mean achievement given that the number of English 18 year olds is the highest since at least 2015.
In Scotland (where this metric is actively used in policymaking) quintile one entry rates are up from 16.1 per cent to 17.40 per cent – a strong year-on year rise after last year’s dip.