There are three important elections coming this week.
The chance of a new government in Wales, a renewed one in Scotland, and further chaos in England all have a potential impact on higher education – and although nothing is ever certain in politics, what parties are saying and what the polls suggest can help us understand what the future looks like.
This article briefly summarises the state of play in Scotland, Wales, and (in general) the local elections. For each, we attempt to set out what is likely to happen, and what the implications for the sector will be.
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Scotland
What’s going to happen: Though Labour looked, briefly, to be in the ascendancy in 2024, every recent poll has shown a strong lead for the SNP for both the constituency and regional seats. Reform has never been as attractive in Scotland as in other parts of the UK – even so, it is an open question as to whether they become the second largest party and thus the official opposition. Though with new boundaries in hand, seat polling is not straightforward (and the polls that are available should be seen as indicative of overall support only), it is difficult to imagine an outcome other than an SNP majority or the SNP as the dominant party in government.
In the past, the Scottish Greens have been able to support some (if not all) measures proposed by a minority SNP administration, most recently via the 2021–24 power sharing agreement which granted them two ministerial posts and a more active role in policy-making. In the event of the SNP falling some way short of a majority, it feels likely that we could see some kind of arrangement with the Greens set up, although the option is open to govern as a minority (as SNP does now) and seek support from different parties for different bills.
Key promises: If we told you that the SNP was committed to funding universities via general taxation rather than student fees, it would come as no surprise. This promise, now approaching its 20th anniversary, returns once again in the 2026 manifesto – alongside other titbits such as a dedicated film and TV school at a Scottish university, and regional economic partnerships on innovation and productivity. Scotland’s commitment to fair access is also set to continue.
The Scottish Greens manifesto holds interesting, and contrasting, promise. On the one hand, the party has set itself against centralised top-down quality frameworks like the REF and the (England-only) TEF, but a lot of the language coming from party leaders seeks more direct control over the higher education sector. Readers of my colleague Michael’s unmissable HE Influence briefing will already be aware of the comments of Ross Greer, who told a UCU Scotland hustings that:
“what frustrates me is that every time the Greens or the UCU or others make arguments around the reforms we want to make to institutions… we’re told, oh no, ONS classification [the point that universities are not in the public sector for accounting purposes], you can’t jeopardise that. My frustration is that we were told that ten years ago… so there’s a Boy Who Cried Wolf element to this.
The manifesto is similarly contradictory – on the one hand it seeks to see colleges (which deliver a lot of higher education) maximise private sector income, while on the other it opposes the marketisation of higher education. There’s promises of support for international recruitment via the expansion of post-study work visas (to be clear, this is not a devolved matter), and the offer of a national hardship fund to support students over the summer.
Here’s a simple map of the redrawn constituencies, showing higher education providers.
Wales
What’s going to happen: Labour has dominated the Welsh political scene for a generation – the one certainty in 2026 is that this story changes. Current polling suggests that Plaid Cymru may have a very small vote share advantage over Reform but that the close competition (and the impact of a new multi-member constituency system) will result in a hung parliament. In most predictions Plaid look set to become the largest party and, in that case, will doubtless seek other nominally left-of-centre parties to support their first government. Which given, the parliamentary arithmetic, could well end up involving Welsh Labour.
Key promises: Plaid has a range of interesting higher education policies – and top of that list would be the promise of an independent review of the sector and how it is funded. It notes that Welsh 18 year old participation is declining, and wants to ensure that the investment that Welsh higher education currently gets addresses this. The Welsh sector, in other words, would be seen explicitly as having a responsibility in upskilling and supporting Wales – the Seren programme that encourages participation would be reformed to better support applications to Welsh universities – and a Plaid-led administration would make the case for research funding devolution.
All that isn’t to paint a Plaid approach as an insular one – in seeking devolution of immigration policy the party would do more to support international recruitment where it would benefit the sector and the nation: it explicitly wants to see more international students come to Wales and opposes restrictions on student visas.
But we cannot discount Reform UK’s strong polling. A Reform led administration would focus on a Welsh equivalent of the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act – but it also makes some noises about sustainable funding, “value for money” from university courses, and a review of capital funding. However there is nothing about international students in the section of the manifesto on immigration.
Here’s a simple map of the new constituencies, showing the locations of higher education providers.
England (local council elections)
What’s going to happen: Voting will take place for wards in 136 councils, with 63 of these happening where the council will be abolished by 2028. This, plus historic trends, suggests a very low turnout in elections and a temptation towards protest voting – that may have only a limited impact in local governance. For sure, the day to day of running a university in a given locality – the names of the people you deal with, the overall predisposition of leaders towards higher education in the local press – will change, but until the new single-tier councils achieve Manchester-like levels of maturity there are few local powers that deal directly with provision of higher education.
This group of local council seats were, in the main, last contested in 2022 (there is also a group of councils who are outside the usual pattern due to reorganisation). If you think back to the political terrain in May of that year – the third calendar year of Covid-19 – it was clear that the wheels were coming off the Johnson administration but there was a reasonable level of support for the Conservatives: the net loss of 485 Conservative seats was well within expectations, while Reform won just two seats. In the time since then Reform has been in the ascendent on the right, and the Conservatives are more unpopular than they have been in a generation. One easy predication to make is a large number of current Conservative seats falling to Reform.
Another is based on the incumbency effect – the party in power at Westminster seldom does well in local elections. Labour’s government hasn’t been popular for a long time, and it is very unlikely to hold many of the 108 seats it won back in 2022: chances are it will lose far more than that, with the Greens or Liberal Democrats parties getting the benefit depending on the preferences of each area.
This is a very experimental visualisation showing areas with elections on May 7 2026, with the previous incumbents of seats shown on a ward by ward basis – click on a ward of interest to get more detail.
The plurality of competitive political parties almost guarantees a rise in the number of administrations under “no overall control” (NOC), normalising multi-party coalitions and making it harder to pass controversial measures. While, as we note, there are few direct impacts on the sector here a less stable or reliable voice feeding into things like (mercifully independent) local skills improvement plans (LSIPs) and the UKRI-funded local innovation partnership fund (LIPF) will not make these rather unwieldy structures any easier to navigate.
Much of the impact will, counterintuitively, be on a national level – where the fate of Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour party hangs in the balance. Two insurgent parties, Reform UK and the Green Party, hold the power to define any forthcoming leadership election – a convincing Reform performance emboldens the right of the party in appealing to older and more conservative voters, while a Green breakthrough gives impetus to the left and attempts to attract young graduates.
We can add to this a knock-on impact on future elections – many people who campaign locally for Labour (particularly those who have risen to planning or organising roles) are, or aspire to be, councillors. The loss of this election-winning lever will have longer term repercussions.
There are already rumblings of a cabinet reshuffle immediately after results day (the FT has your back if you want to know how results will arrive hour by hour) and before the King’s Speech. Some sources suggest more power for the “soft left” of the party, and a return of Angela Rayner to government.
Any reshuffle may, of course, be an attempt to forestall a leadership challenge that would in itself mark the start of a change of direction. It is fair to assume that a party newly alive to the loss of votes from young graduates in metropolitan areas (to the Greens) and older professionals in the south (to the Liberal Democrats) would feel some pressure to address some of the more egregious issues with the student finance system and our regulatory approach. But there is also a world in which a strong showing by Reform emboldens those who want a greater emphasis on vocational routes and further action on freedom of speech.
Whatever happens locally, the national picture is very much in flux. Expect the usual attempts from all parties and factions to define the narrative in ways that “prove” they were right all along – and expect voices from the sector using the results to make their own arguments about what should happen next to higher education.
