First Minister John Swinney has set out plans for a Scottish Graduate Visa, which would essentially be an additional two years of post-study work for those on the Graduate route. It would be linked to a Scottish tax code and be based on a requirement to live and work in Scotland.

Migration is not a policy area which is devolved to Scotland, however. So the case needs to be made to Westminster, rather than to Scottish voters:

I urge the UK Government to work with us – not dismiss this proposal out of hand – to ensure that we can attract and retain those students and graduates to Scotland, so that they can continue to contribute to our economy and society.

Now it’s long been politically convenient for the Scottish government to deflect every question about higher education funding back to policy choices that are reserved to Westminster, particularly changes to the dependant visa. A rejection of this proposal by UK Labour would be something to point to any time the SNP government comes under criticism from Scottish Labour over falling levels of investment in universities (in the same way that scrutiny from the Scottish Conservatives is batted back with references to Brexit, Liz Truss and international students).

But there’s also no doubt it’s sincere in wanting to encourage international students to stay longer. Back in 2023, the Scottish government set out post-independence aspirations for migration in a shonkily clip-arted policy proposal. This included a proposed “Scottish Connections visa” which would allow international students to stay and work in Scotland for five years after graduation.

Even further back, Scotland had its own tailored migration route, the Fresh Talent: Working in Scotland scheme, which gave international students the option of staying an additional two years – indeed, the eligibility criteria in today’s proposal are essentially copy-pasted from the Fresh Talent scheme. The route was a measured success (the numbers were modest by today’s standards), and it came to an end in 2008 when the UK-wide Tier 1 post-study work visa was launched.

There’s also a salient policy point in what the Scottish government has set out – with the rise in the Skilled Worker visa threshold to £38,700 (minus various discounts for “new entrants” such as Graduate route visa holders, those with PhDs, or certain job roles), it’s currently unclear how well the post-study work visa works as a stepping stone to the full work visa. Unless you’re in certain industries and/or in London, is it really realistic to expect a 30k+ salary two years after graduation – and if not, what’s the Graduate route for?

Universities Wales made much the same point last year with regard to starting salaries for graduates in Wales:

The change in salary thresholds on the Skilled Worker Route (now £38,700) will also have a disproportionate impact in Wales, where the average graduate starting salary is ~£25,000. Furthermore, in 2020, Universities Wales was a signatory to a joint position paper developed by Welsh Government, which suggested the salary threshold should be capped at £20,000 to avoid restricting opportunities for graduates in some parts of Wales. £38,700 is hugely prohibitive by comparison.

Today’s Scottish government proposal is quite sensible about this:

We therefore propose the establishment of a Scottish Graduate Visa which would act as a bridge between the existing Graduate Visa and a Skilled Worker Visa, giving international students in Scotland an additional 2 years to develop their career to meet the salary threshold.

In policy design terms, it’s also fairly neat in just bolting on additional post-study work rights to those who are already on the Graduate visa, rather than needing to draw up any new eligibility criteria.

Right, so is there any chance that the Westminster government would give its blessing to something like this?

The obvious points to be made here are that Labour is committed to getting net migration down – but has also inherited a policy environment in which net migration is going to fall in official stats for at least a couple of years. There’s a legal migration white paper due, and just today Rachel Reeves is floating the idea of a better visa offer for skilled workers in AI and life sciences in particular. The Westminster government has – on paper at least – committed to empowering the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to make sensible long-term and less political choices. But in headline terms Labour will continue to be extremely bullish on total numbers, all the way through to the next election.

In its first commission to the MAC, on engineering and IT professionals, we did get this little note (my bolding):

It is open to the MAC to consider a wide range of different options, including the merits or otherwise of a differentiated approach, based on region, occupation and/or other factors.

But the optics of giving the Scottish government more power may end up prohibitive. Earlier this week there was a Westminster Hall debate on the family visa, the eligibility for which was due to rise to £38,700 (though this has been paused, subject to another MAC review). The debate was full of MPs from Scotland and Wales pointing out that such a high salary requirement to bring a spouse over “is unrealistic for most people living outside London and south-east England.”

SNP MP Seamus Logan asked whether the Home Office was discussing, or would discuss, the question of bespoke visas with the Scottish government. Legal migration minister Seema Malhotra was, on the face of it, pretty clear:

We will not be devolving immigration policy, because the issues that Scotland faces are the same issues faced in other areas.

Though she went on:

They also relate to labour market issues, whether that be pay, controls or conditions. It is important that we understand the issues, which is why I will visit Scotland in the near future. It is important to hear at first hand from those around the country, as we must have an immigration system that works for all parts of the United Kingdom.

The unkind interpretation here is that you can’t have a system that works for all parts of the UK if you insist that all parts of the UK face the same issues. Somewhat more generously, you could parse out a government that does not want to be seen to be giving up any control of the immigration system, but secretly feels that some kind of national or regional responsiveness would be a good idea. Acting on that intuition would take quite a bit of political courage.