Withdrawal rates are down
David Kernohan is Deputy Editor of Wonkhe
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The Student Loans Company release of early-in-year student withdrawal notifications is a good, if imperfect, lens on the experiences of undergraduate students.
The timeseries started back during the pandemic, when many were concerned that students – who were unable to have the traditional student experience – would drop out of their courses. Because the data here excludes students who simply never arrive (a surprising number), we do get a sense of how many and what proportion of students start a course and decide not to complete it. This is the August release, so completes the 2023-24 academic year data.
As I say, it isn’t perfect: because SLC data submission isn’t perfect. As with other sector data collections providers have the opportunity to “correct” the record after the year in question is complete – this has happened for 2018-19 and 2019-20, but not for years since. So comparisons between years need to be done with care.
But what we are seeing for English domiciled students is positive – both the proportion and numbers of students withdrawing from each year of study are down on last year. The exception is foundation years, the proportion of students withdrawing from foundation years is down, but the number of students withdrawing is up, due to a growth in the number of students on foundation years.
Why? Well, it is very difficult even to speculate. It is possible that providers, buoyed by advances in learner analytics, chastened by an Office for Students focus on outcomes measures, and ever-aware of the financial implications of student attrition, are pulling their fingers out. Well done everyone, if so.
“It is possible that providers, buoyed by advances in learner analytics, chastened by an Office for Students focus on outcomes measures, and ever-aware of the financial implications of student attrition, are pulling their fingers out”
Or perhaps 2021-22 and 2022-23 were abnormal years – COVID and strikes – and we now see a return to normal?
An alternative explanation is that institutions, desperate for tuition fees, are keeping students on the books despite all the evidence pointing to the student having left.
The reality is that the larger percentage of students simply stop engaging but do not formally withdraw
This is why SLC should record the various reasons for WD at both UG and PGT level. They are usually multifaceted and a uni will struggle to collect the data as the student has often gone before they are aware they have gone. This is a request many of us have been asking for a while. When my MP Caroline Lucas asked Robert Halfon the question in the HoC after we spoke, he stated that the government had no plans. Maybe something for the Labour SoS to consider?
SLC withdrawals are all processed by the provider, so where would this additional insight would come from? Not sure what bearing the collection of this data would have on the provision of finance either – doesn’t sound like it should fall under the SLC remit.
Are you the same Dean Challinor that relegated my Peterborough side with a last minute free kick? If so, you are a mortal enemy and I will find you.