What’s on vice chancellors’ minds?

The near-annual PA consulting survey of vice chancellors isn’t ever quite as impressive as it initially seems. A peer at this year’s methodology lets us know that the findings are based on just forty responses to the online survey, augmented by 20 follow up interviews.

So – while we can’t say that this represents a plurality (or even a representative sample) of institutional leaders in England, Scotland, and Wales – there is always a lot of value and interest in the qualitative comments.

What’s notable to me is what we might see as the limits to competition. Vice chancellors are very much focused on the sector as a whole, and there’s no indication that anyone would be happy to see competitors fail, with one noting:

Even a single major failure could make planning any change in the sector almost impossible as the scale of contagion from an unplanned event is unpredictable.

That said, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of hope that recruitment trends are in university favour – confidence in student number growth has fallen sharply, with just three per cent of respondents agreeing that they can increase home post graduate income by 20 per cent. Nearly everyone appears to be planning for some growth across all categories, just not substantial growth. Likewise, few are seriously considering the prospect of income growth through research and development. As one vice chancellor put it:

I would not be confident enough to plan for ‘significant’ growth in any area. Rather, realistic planning and cautious growth across a diverse mix of activities is the order of the day

So is the sector looking to online and local provision, or non-academic services, to keep universities afloat? There is some evidence of growth in online or local provision (18 per cent have plans for significant growth in each area, a further 50 per cent are planning moderate growth. On non-academic commercial services the picture is clearer – three quarters are expecting to grow these by at least 5 per cent, although expected income would be orders of magnitude smaller than from teaching or research.

If there’s no salvation through income growth we are reduced to difficult and painful choices. Pretty much everyone is looking at fundamental changes to the way universities offer: the way forward is transformation, and the kind of cultural change that facilitates it is very much a top priority. And quickly. Some 43 per cent feel like they are making good progress, but there is a “transformation maturity gap”.

This extends to portfolio review – already happening or a top priority in more than 90 per cent of those surveyed. There is an interest in more vocational and sub-degree learning (72 per cent expect to grow here), as one vice chancellor puts it:

We plan to look at Higher Technical Qualifications (HTQ), Level 4 and 5 – a return to the old model of the polytechnic.

And there is interest in shared services – although this comes alongside an understanding of the practical challenges. That said, a quarter of those surveyed have already made (or plan to make) arrangements with other providers: examples included locally co-ordinated portfolios, shared IT platforms, and that old chestnut that is back office savings.

The headline has to be that one in five are actively exploring potential mergers, though this is correctly perceived as a difficult nut to crack: “expensive, complicated, time-consuming” and an “unwanted distraction”.

As above, this is a small scale survey, but we can see it as evidence of the measures at least some leadership teams are considering. It’s getting scary out there.