Data from the 28th day of clearing shows some concerning trends

The tenth of September marks 28 days since the release of this year’s A level results.

Most applicants who were accepted by their firm choice of provider and course will by now be preparing to start their courses. That includes, as of the final UCAS data release of this clearing period, 224,670 UK domiciled 18 year olds.

You would expect the majority of these to have been accepted on results day, with a few more confirming before the summer – and that was the dominant pattern right up until 2024. At that point, things get interesting: students begin to move from their firm choice to study elsewhere. In 2026 66.6 per cent of UK 18 year olds held an acceptance from their firm choice on results day, but on day 28 it was just 65.33 per cent (a drop of around 4,300 students).

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A part of this could be explained by a rise in the number of UK 18 year old applicants placed after using UCAS’ Decline My Place functionality to find a more suitable place (19,220 this year – up from 18,990 last year) but it is notable that the proportion of applicants who accepted a new place after declining fell – from 65 per cent last year to just 59.5 per cent this year. Putting this last finding another way, a record 13,220 UK 18 year olds met the conditions of their firm offer and then decided not to attend university this year.

Some 43 per cent of UK 18 year old students who did choose to start a course in 2026 will be studying at a higher tariff provider – that’s equivalent to 127,400 students, the highest number on record. And while medium tariff providers see a second year of modest growth, numbers continue to decline at lower tariff providers with just 70,410 UK 18 year olds placed at providers in that group: the lowest number and proportion (23.9 per cent) since before 2017.

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In terms of international undergraduate recruitment – though to be clear, not all recruitment goes through UCAS for this group, Michael has some alarming visa data elsewhere – 66,620 international students of all ages will be joining the sector, of which 70.3 per cent will be attending a high tariff provider. Lower tariff providers have seen another dip in international recruitment – just 6,160 (9.25 per cent) of international students recruited via UCAS ended up at a provider in that group.

Clearing activity overall is on a par with the last three years – 2026 saw 49,870 UK students or 8.86 per cent of those in the system placed via clearing (excluding direct to clearing entrants). There are still 92,130 UK-domiciled applicants still in the clearing system – though it is unlikely that many of these will be placed before the start of term. However this means that 83.64 per cent of UK domiciled applicants were either placed or are currently holding an offer – the highest since 2023.

The course of a recruitment cycle isn’t always immediately visible – and we will gain more perspective when the full end of cycle data is released over the new year. It’s clear that some providers have done very well – this is also clear from the resurgence of stories about students unable to secure accommodation, and the providers traditionally regarded as high tariff have been the winners in a game played for increasingly high stakes.

There are signs that applicants are becoming aware that they have a lot of power within this market – and we should not be blind to the implications of a growing number choosing not to attend higher education at all, despite being qualified to do so and holding their preferred place. Whatever perspective you have on the number of people going to university, it is difficult to escape the fact that these are precisely the people who probably should be.