Higher education “cold spots” aren’t new, but they’re becoming harder to ignore.
Since 2024, our team at the British Academy has tracked cold spots – areas with no provision in a subject within a commutable distance – across social sciences, humanities and arts (SHAPE) provision, identifying clusters across the North, East and South West of England, as well as in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
In September 2025, we reported that Modern Foreign Languages are already under acute pressure, alongside disciplines such as Linguistics and Anthropology, while more widely studied subjects including English and History are also beginning to show signs of strain.
Taken together, these trends increase the prospect that cold spots could become a systemic feature of the higher education landscape.
A starting point
Government has started to pay attention. In England, the Post-16 White Paper recognised the implications of cold spots for access and regional skills and established a Task and Finish Group to explore potential solutions. In Wales, ministers commissioned a regional subject deep-dive from Medr and opened a consultation on the most pressing problems facing Welsh higher education, with subject cold spots front and centre. In Scotland, the Government has launched its first ever holistic review into university funding since devolution, in partnership with Universities Scotland.
These are important first steps. But they are a long way from proactive system stewardship. Course closures continue, and the landscape keeps shifting – and contracting. With our interactive maps updated using new 2024-25 HESA data, we can now see, one year on from our first assessment, how closures are reshaping provision and transforming access to SHAPE subjects across the UK. We have also added a filter for the user to view undergraduate students aged 21 and over. The emergence of cold spots is often exacerbated when analysing this cohort as mature students are more likely to commute to study.
A system in flux
At first glance, SHAPE provision still appears to show strong regional spread. SHAPE enrolments were up 7 per cent since 2011-12 and more than 13,000 UK-domiciled undergraduates (measured by Full Person Equivalent, FPE) began SHAPE degrees in 2024-25. For some parts of the UK, like Scotland, provision in most SHAPE subjects appears relatively stable.
But behind these headline figures lies a more complex picture. Most students, bar those in the most remote or rural areas, could still access degrees in business and management, law and social work locally in 2024-25. Subjects like psychology, politics and economics also remain (relatively) widespread.
For other subjects, it’s a different story. Cold spots in modern foreign languages continue to grow at pace. In 2024-25, closures were unusually clustered in the South East of England – a region historically relatively well-served. Degrees in French, German, Spanish, and certain African and modern Middle Eastern languages (such as Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew and Swahili) have vanished from the map.
In our geopolitically volatile age, with global supply chains exposed and defence and diplomacy the watchwords of the day, language degree closures represent a loss of critical linguistic and cultural skills. They also mean the loss of teaching, research and professional staff – exactly the kind of expertise which, in this climate, the UK can scarcely afford to lose.
As language degree closures continue, what once looked like a looming challenge for languages in higher education now appears, in the words of Birmingham VC Adam Tickell at our recent SHAPE conference, to be a “national catastrophe”.
A sector divided
The data also shows a widening gap by provider type – particularly between the Russell Group and everyone else. No grouping is perfect, but separating Russell Group, pre-92, post-92, and alternative providers helps reveal shared characteristics and trends.
The picture, then, is clear. Subjects like history, English, philosophy, and human and social geography saw small enrolment increases (between 2-6 per cent) in Russell Group institutions in 2024-25. Since 2011-12 student numbers in these subjects have remained relatively stable or grown in the Russell Group.
Elsewhere numbers continue to fall. In these same subjects, non-Russell Group providers have seen consistent decline. History provides a stark example for 2024-25: a 6 per cent increase in the Russell Group and a 5 per cent fall elsewhere. Since 2011-12, history enrolments have risen by 4 percent, but dropped 52 per cent in pre-92 institutions and 58 per cent in post-92 and alternative providers.
This split affects national and regional provision. In some regions, including parts of the North West and North East of England, and South Wales, SHAPE subjects – particularly in the humanities – are stable or growing in Russell Group providers and struggling in others. Even high-demand subjects historically strong in post-92 institutions such as business and management, sociology, and psychology saw growth restricted to Russell Group providers last year.
Regions at risk
Perhaps the most concerning story from the 2024-25 data is the growing number of at risk areas: places where low or falling enrolments point to future closures.
In Cumbria, home to William Wordsworth and a great Romantic literary heritage, the last undergraduate degree in English literature and language has now closed to new entrants, admitting its last students in 2023-24. Within a year, the region of Kent and parts of the South Coast also became a cold spot for several SHAPE subjects, from languages to philosophy, anthropology through to history of art. The closest remaining options for local learners are now in London, which, given the capital’s high living and commuting costs, will be far from an easy switch.
Even subjects with deep roots in national and regional identity face an uncertain future. In Wales, for example, enrolments in Welsh language and literature degrees remain low. Were the country to become a cold spot for its own national language, this would be especially alarming, directly threatening the Welsh Government’s target of reaching one million Welsh speakers by 2050.
And while the East Midlands may be home to some of the UK’s most multi-lingual cities, including Leicester and Nottingham – designated a City of Languages from 2026 – degree-level language provision already looks fragile. Should trends continue, and further closures occur, students in these areas will be faced with no local options – and a lot of tough choices.
Solutions
As long as financial pressures and current student recruitment trends that vary sharply between different providers continue, course closures and cold spots will grow. These pressures show little sign of relenting, particularly with the proposed levy on international student income in England, which will reduce the domestic teaching subsidy.
But cold spots also reveal the problem with leaving regional subject provision up to the market. Even an increase in domestic tuition fees – while welcome – will not fix a demand-led system where subject survival depends on recruitment trends and fierce inter-provider competition.
Greater recognition of subject cold spots from governments and regulators is a welcome first step. However, if we are serious about regional opportunity and secure local skills pipelines, sector regulators must commit to monitoring regional subject health – following Medr’s recent example – and connecting these assessments with initiatives like the Skills England Local Skills Dashboard, to really demonstrate the role of higher education in local growth and opportunity. Expanding Strategic Priorities Grant funding for at-risk subjects would help to protect provision from further closures, and from the risk to future prosperity. Once courses close, and teaching and research expertise are lost, it will be very hard to rebuild; our students and staff, society and culture, and the local and national economies will suffer badly.
Ultimately, the UK needs to review how higher education is funded and regulated. We cannot leave the future of essential teaching and research to a scramble for students and a race to recruit.
