Access goes backwards in Scotland
David Kernohan is Deputy Editor of Wonkhe
Tags
The Scottish Funding Council’s Report on Widening Access 2022-23 is merely the latest in a series of reports that has been delayed, shortened, or abridged because of the problems with Data Futures.
But the fact we are missing the data tables on retention (continuation, in England) and on articulation between college and university does not blunt the central disappointing message – work on access in Scotland seems to be going backwards.
The number of higher education entrants from Scotland’s 20 per cent most deprived areas (based on SIMD2020v2) has fallen to 5,310 – down from 5,595 in 2021-22. And the proportion of entrants from these areas is just 16.3 per cent: lower than every year since 2018-19.
Commissioner for Fair Access John McKendrick is disappointed:
My disappointment extends beyond numbers. I am disappointed for the individuals from Scotland’s Most Deprived Areas whose potential is not being realised, and I am disappointed for those from universities, colleges and schools whose best efforts and sterling work in promoting access to higher education are not reflected in these data.
He also notes that UCAS data from last cycle suggests this is a temporary blip in a timeseries based on historic data – the signs are that the number of acceptances from the SIMD quintile one has risen sharply.
The use of SIMD (as an area based measure using Output Zones: areas of varying sizes that contain around 1,000 residents) in this way has long been controversial – the essence of the argument against is that rural areas tend to skew towards a greater average level of economic advantage because of their sheer size, and if you are a provider committed to recruiting locally then where you are based determines how well you will perform on this particular access measure.
SIMD quintiles are also looking rather old hat – the cool kids now are looking at deciles, and a map of these shows just how much of Scotland’s deprivation is concentrated (apparently) in the larger cities of the central belt:
We get data at provider level on these deciles – here I’ve plotted university recruitment to full time first degrees.
Overall just over eight per cent of recruitment was from the lowest decile (that’s the bottom half of the lowest quintile, stats-fans) on the SIMD measure. But this varies radically by provider: at St Andrews we’re looking at 5.8 per cent of students from decile 1, whereas at Abertay the proportion is 11.6 per cent (a notable year on year improvement), and at West of Scotland we hit 15.3 per cent.
Access in Scotland has been failing in Scotland under the SNP for years. Look back at previous WONKE articles – especially the comments. More than 1 in 4 children now live in relative poverty north of Berwick. There is no roadmap leading towards improvement as McKendrick is well aware. Only the electorate can turn the dial in May 2026.