This year’s election promises to be a very odd one, and despite more polls landing than ever before it will be very difficult to predict.
Not the result, to be clear: you have to go back to December 2021 to find a poll that shows anything other than a Labour lead, and to September 2022 to find a Labour lead of less than 10 per cent. A Friday morning that doesn’t see Keir Starmer enter number 10 would represent the biggest failure in polling in history.
Betting tips
The difficulty comes at the level of individual seats. There are a lot of different forces in motion. Both the Green Party and Reform look set for their best results ever – the decade long dominance of the SNP in Scotland feels like it may be over. And the Liberal Democrats haven’t done as well as they are currently projected since the days of Nick Clegg.
Couple that with a low turnout, a large number of “don’t know” responses in polls, the enormous list of Conservative campaign catastrophes, a sense that Labour hasn’t captured the hearts of the electorate in the same way that Blair did, and the peculiarities of first past the post in the UK, and there is a surprising amount of uncertainty.
At Wonkhe we like to think higher education holds the key to understanding election night. The likelihood of young people to attend university, the number of students in a constituency, and the number of graduates all have a bearing on voting patterns. Broadly speaking these associated with higher education groups have historically tended away from the Conservatives – towards Labour and minor parties in England and Wales, towards the SNP in Scotland. Will this hold? Pour yourself one of whatever you are having, crank up John Curtice, and let’s find out.
Moreover, the likely end of 14 years of Conservative-led government will see a number of familiar faces – most of who, seemingly, have been a minister with some responsibility for the sector at some point – face stiff re-election challenges. There may well be some dark humour to be gleaned from someone over-familiar from the Wonkhe Daily Briefing losing their seat. A little bit of informal polling of my own suggests losing Gavin Williamson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, or Jonathan Gullis would represent highlights for people around the sector. And we’ve had MRPs that have suggested a farewell to parliament for all three.
Your dashboards
First up, we have a constituency dashboard – simply choose one of the 650 on offer at the top (pro tip: type the name into the box, don’t just scroll down the menu), and you’ll have all the information you need to understand what is going on. On the top left, a list of candidates and the expected time of declaration (note that, unlike the SNPs university funding policy, these are not set in stone). On the right, the notional 2019 winner (taking account of boundary changes – Rallings and Thrasher’s version), and results from a selection of MRPs (and similar SRPs) throughout the campaign.
Across the bottom – the number of graduates in the area, the number of full time students in the area, and the proportion of 18 year olds that enter higher education. Note the first two are from the 2021 Census and cover England and Wales only, with the latter being derived from the OfS TUNDRA measure and covering England only. And an average SEISA value for the constituency: SEISA is a measure of local area deprivation that takes into account education and work skill levels, a lower value means more people with more advanced qualifications and in higher skilled jobs live there.
The other key dashboard helps you dive into some of the polls – I’ve chosen a range of MRPs from across the campaign (if there’s one next week I’ll add it), which you can render on a proportional (hexagons!) or geographic map for the regions of England and for Scotland and Wales (not Northern Ireland – most of the MRPs don’t offer predictions there)
Though we have had a lot of MRPs this time round (briefly these are polls that use a large polling sample and demographic information to simulate elections in each constituency) the actual numbers and seat results coming out have been variable as local issues and the vagaries of first past the post come into play. One of these will be right and will pick up plaudits – given the variance (and the large number of expensive MRPs conducted but not published because the results make no sense bear this out) a lot more will be badly wrong. For me the industry needs to get clearer at documenting the decisions and methodologies that underpin the seat calls.
If you mouse over a constituency you get to know who is standing, and the same key HE related facts as you saw above.
And for the dedicated – a quick way of finding where a person is standing, plus estimated declaration times. Want to be up for Michelle Donelan? (Melksham and Devizes – not Chippenham! – at 4am). Again, use the search box don’t scroll down the menu.
Election night begins
Voting closes, and the exit poll arrives at 10pm sharp. The exit poll remains the best prediction of the final result – anything other than a sizable Labour majority here would be a huge shock. After this moment literally nothing will happen for about one and a half hours. The first result will be Blyth and Ashington at 23.30 – likely a win for Labour, but both the proportion of votes going to Labour (the nominal 2019 majority was 19.2 per cent) and to Reform (likely in second place) will be worth watching.
23.45 to 02.30
Almost straight away we get our first higher education seat of the night, Houghton and Sunderland South should be an easy one for Bridget Phillipson (very likely the next Secretary of State for Education) who should be on course to improve on her nominal 7.5 per cent majority.
Half an hour later, Chi Onwurah – Labour’s widely liked shadow science minister – should retain Newcastle Central and West, even going beyond her 30 per cent plus 2019 majority. Her constituency is home to the University of Newcastle and Northumbria University.
Now’s as good a time as any to note that, although some will tell you that student seats will be bereft of students during the summer this doesn’t strictly hold true. Leaving aside the many local students, postgraduates, and students on courses with non-standard start points, many “traditional” students choose to remain in the city they study in over the summer (to work, to socialise). Even those who return have the right to vote using their term time address.
I note this now because we face a bit of a lull in interesting results at this point. Two student heavy seats in the east midlands (Nottingham South, and Nottingham East) land at 2.30. Both returned thumping Labour majorities in 2019 – both should do so again.
03.00 to 04.00
Students in Glasgow North (03.00) were among those who voted for the SNP’s Alison Thewliss in 2019, but recent polls have shown this seat leaning sharply to Labour. Meanwhile, cosmopolitan Bristol Central (another seat full of students and graduates, declaring at 03.15) could well see the Green Party gain the seat.
But eyes down for a key higher education moment – it is possible that Secretary of State for Education Gillian Keegan will lose her Chichester (03.30) seat to the Liberal Democrats, overturning an astonishing 38.5 percent notional majority.
Two seats for the terminally wonkish will be declared at the same time. Andrea Jenkyns (yes, her with the finger, and the hit single in Pakistan – she was universities minister for a period under Johnson and Truss) seems set to lose Leeds South West and Morely. And over in Hyndburn, Sara Britcliffe’s seat will almost certainly fall to Labour. Sara who? She was Michelle Donelan’s PPS early on, the only member of the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Committee never to actually speak during the deliberations, and for a brief moment (about 4 hours on 4 July 2021) the only member of the House of Commons with a role in the Department for Education: much to the delight of myself and Public First’s Jonathan Simons. Wonderfully, her cousin Matthew Britcliffe was due to stand against her for the Workers’ party – alas he withdrew shortly before nominations closed.
Three university seats – Liverpool Riverside, Coventry South, and Exeter – the first of these is a Labour cert, with bellwether seat Coventry South (a marginal Labour win in 2019) likely to fall the same way as Labour’s traditional south west stronghold in the university seat of Exeter. Is that why they all wear red trousers?
Emma Hardy’s expanded Kingston-upon-Hull West and Haltemprice seat would have been notionally Conservative in 2019. She was a favourite as universities shadow a few years back and remains active on education issues. She is heavily predicted to win this seat at around 3.30, seeing off Reform in second place
By quarter to the hour we should see well-regarded SNP education spokesperson Carol Monaghan attempt to defend her Glasgow West seat. Initially seen as a seat that could go either way, recent polling has seen Labour’s lead solidify.
04.00
The shape of the next government should be becoming apparent. Matt Western, current shadow universities minister, should win in Warwick and Leamington (at around 04.00) at which point everything wrong with HE in England could well become his fault. Enjoy it while you can, Matt.
This is also the time where we could all enjoy the ultimate “Portillo moment”: Rishi Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton looks on paper like a Conservative hold, but would you put money on that? (To be clear, you should probably not if you are a candidate)
Over in Melksham and Devizes Secretary of State for Science Innovation and Technology (and record-breaking Education Secretary) Michelle Donelan should probably hold her seat against a Lib Dem challenge. With her old Chippenham seat undergoing a significant boundary change she has moved to the (safer) one next door – her old seat could well fall to the Lib Dems, who are also the challengers here.
A whole load of other former education secretaries (who all spent considerably longer in the role than Donelan!) are vying for your attention – James Cleverly (Braintree), Gavin Williamson (Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge), Damian Hinds (East Hampshire), and Kit Malthouse (North West Hampshire – yes, we’d forgotten he was Secretary of State too, it was a Liz Truss thing) – should all see seats declare during the next hour. All four are defending huge notional majorities and will likely hang on, though a handful of MRPs have called Williamson’s seat for Labour – which would likely be a highlight for many in the sector if it happened.
A little more niche – but keep an eye on Birmingham Selly Oak at around 04.15. Decent number of students in the seat, probably a Labour win, but fans of university planning might want to keep an eye on the Lib Dem candidate.
Munira Wilson, meanwhile, has been education spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats for ages – she is very likely to keep her Twickenham seat and return for the next parliament. And four big student seats Leeds Central and Headingley, Sheffield Central, Cardiff South and Penarth and Cambridge should declare round about now: all three have large Labour majorities and should be Labour wins this time round. And at quarter past the hour Seema Malhotra, Labour shadow skills minister, should hold Feltham and Heston.
4.30 till morning
You may remember Amanda Solloway as the science minister that commissioned multiple reviews of research funding. Her Derby North seat, due to declare at around 04.30 was marginal in 2019 – polls in 2024 are calling it as safe for Labour. But you will almost certainly remember Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was (briefly) the minister with responsibility for science and research (and, indeed, apparently attempted to name the much discussed replacement for Horizon after his daughter!). His newly redrawn North East Somerset and Hanham seat would have been a huge Conservative majority (nearly 30 percent) with notional 2019 results, it is now on a knife-edge and leaning Labour.
A bunch more university seats are also up at this point, keep an eye out for Manchester Rusholme, Edinburgh East and Musselburg, and Edinburgh South West. There’ll be no change in the Manchester seat (which includes nearly 30k full time students), but the Scottish seats are both Labour/SNP marginals. Whether or not the young and educated are really abandoning the SNP for Labour will decide the fate of both, though I would be unsurprised to see Joanna Cherry lose her student-heavy seat.
As the sun rises we get some more key names standing nervously in sports halls. Labour’s Peter Kyle has shadowed the DSIT brief and is widely tipped to take on the role in Government. Hove and Portslade should be an easy hold for him at 04.45. Yate and Thornbury has always been a Conservative/Lib Dem battleground – universities minister Luke Hall could struggle to hold it this time round, despite boundary changes that would have put him on a 25 per cent majority in 2019.
Jonathan Gullis, a former DfE minister and a clear Reform defection risk, is very unlikely to hold Stoke-on-Trent North at 05.00, while science minister Andrew Griffith is likely to fare rather better in the safe Conservative stronghold of Arundel and South Downs half-an-hour later.
Things are slowing down now, and you could be justified in catching a nap. Oxford West and Abingdon is up at 06.00: Layla Moran’s constituency of students and graduates should return her for the Lib Dems. And, almost the last seat to declare will be shadow health minister (and former NUS president) Wes Streeting’s Ilford North – on current polling, he should hold it.