New data from UCAS shows the number of 18 year old applications to undergraduate courses for autumn 2025 continues to climb, including from young people from disadvantaged backgrounds.
The slight dip in the rate of applications can be explained in part by changes around how students engage with the application cycle. Year-on-year we see decision making happening later in the admissions cycle. There is a clear disconnect between the discourse around universities and the demand for them, where the long-term trend is up.
Universities have long been used as political currency, despite being a core part of young people’s aspirations in the UK. It is not uncommon to hear influential politicians and commentators argue against the value of a degree, even though they generally have degrees themselves. If the government has its sights set on sparking economic growth and creating opportunity across society, encouraging more people to go to university is the answer, with jobs requiring higher education expected to see the most growth in the next ten years, according to analysis from Skills England.
There has been a tremendous amount of progress in helping people from a wider range of backgrounds go to university in recent years, and this is reflected in new UCAS data. Applications from young people from areas with low participation in higher education is at its highest level in recent years. Not only does this afford thousands more young people opportunities that they might never otherwise have had, it also has huge economic benefits for them, and their communities.
Reaping the rewards of participation
However, there is much further to go. You are still about twice as likely to go to university if you are from the most affluent backgrounds, compared to the least affluent. This can’t be right, particularly as the data shows that the benefits of university are especially strong for people from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Graduates who received free school meals earlier in life get a big earnings boost by going to university. On average, they’ll earn over a third more than non-graduates from the same background by the age of 31. And the benefits go beyond salary – universities play an important role in tackling economic inactivity and unemployment, one of the government’s key battles. Overall, graduates are far less likely to be claiming benefits, nearly three times less likely to be economically inactive, and over one and a half times more likely to be employed than non-graduates.
The data shows that there is still a great deal of progress to be made in closing the regional participation gap. In London, 58 per cent of 18-year-olds applied to university; in the North East this was only 32 per cent. In Wales, the participation rate has been going backwards. This is a huge missed opportunity for the nation.
If the government were to work with universities, colleges and schools to ensure all young people have the same educational opportunities, we’d see more people in work and more people able to adapt as the labour market changes around them, earning higher wages and filling the jobs being created in exciting new sectors of the economy.
And, given that graduates are statistically more likely to enjoy better health, we’d probably have a healthier population too. In the UK we’re lucky to have exceptional universities in every region of the UK, and producing and attracting more graduates to these areas could significantly boost regional productivity.
That’s not to say that everyone should want to, or needs to go to university to have a successful career or spark regional growth, but graduates’ skills make a vital contribution to local economies. Regions with high numbers of graduates perform better economically, and these benefits spillover to non-graduates. All eight growth-driving sectors identified by the government, including clean energy and the creative industries, are dependent on a bigger supply of graduates to expand. Last year, these industries reported having a 50 per cent higher proportion of graduates than in the UK workforce as a whole.
The bottom line
For the many young people who don’t know exactly what they want to do in life, going to university can be the difference between gaining skills and experience that will set them up for life or falling into economic inactivity. Despite what a great deal of headlines will tell you, universities are essential to young people’s prospects in this country, and the new application data shows that young people feel this too.
As well as the huge economic benefits for wider society, university has huge appeal for individuals. It’s an opportunity to gain career skills, immerse yourself in a subject you enjoy and meet lifelong friends. And above all, thanks to the UK’s diverse offering of institutions and courses, including academic and vocational styles, it’s a realistic goal for most people. Perhaps, in a world where young people are being increasingly discouraged about the future ahead, university represents something more optimistic, and that’s why they continue to want to go there.
Economic status and region are mentioned, but not sex and ethnicity. Does Universities UK not care about those gaps? I wonder why?
Perhaps because those gaps are closing rapidly while economic status and region are getting wider.
Between 2022 and 2023 the access gap between black and white grew from 15.3 to 18.4. Back in 2007 the access gap was only 0.9. So in fact, this particular gap is big and growing. Note that the black participation rate is the higher one! See
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/higher-education/entry-rates-into-higher-education/latest/
On the gender gap the House of Commons Library writes:
“There were more women accepted through UCAS than men for the first
time in 1996. Since then, the gap has generally grown and was 68,000
students or 28% more women than men in 2024.”
See
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7857/CBP-7857.pdf
So again, a gap that is (generally) growing rather than “closing rapidly” as you assert.
The statistics mentioned suggests university provides a 33% boost in earnings to individuals from a disadvantaged background. That’s slightly misrepresenting the benefit. It is comparing a select cohort of more ambitious individuals from a larger group of individuals from the same economic background.. which includes both the ambitious, the less ambitious and the bone idle. The benefit of university should be compared against similarly ambitious (and able) but opting for an apprenticeship. The difference in earnings would be significantly less, and would be reversed if you’re talking about art based degrees vs vocational apprenticeships. Plus those taking the apprenticeship route wouldn’t be sadled with additional 9% tax (almost double the marginal rate of basic rate tax payers). Compound interest upon the student loan now creates a near career long (significant) tax burden.
Good points. I would like to see a breakdown of the data behind this supposed ‘earnings boost’ at aged 31, particularly by degree type and institution attended, also compared to those who have taken good quality FE / vocational routes, and, as you say, are motivated to succeed in their careers.
I think creating more graduates, just ends up creating more jobs that ‘require degrees’ (or apparently do… but do they actually?) A better solution would be to improve the quality of vocational routes and apprenticeships.
As a nation we need to address the barriers to young people entering higher education, and the retention issues that many HE institutions endure. The greatest barrier (anecdotally) seems to be economic, although I do not have stats or data to back this up… its what young people are telling me.