Each month the Home Office publishes visa application stats I say more or less the same thing – we won’t know how these have landed across institution types or course level (or by nationality, despite fairly good working assumptions) until later in the year, and we won’t know how these convert to actual student numbers either.

In July the monthly figure was down 15 per cent on 2023 – not great for sector business models, but not as catastrophic as some of the predictions of 40 per cent or more that have been briefed to the press since the dependants ban. Though this could well be the case at individual universities.

For August, we see a similar 17 per cent drop on 2023. The big difference this time around is that August is by far the key month for applications, not far off the cumulative total of the previous seven months of the year. So the 17 per cent drop represents almost 25,000 fewer applications, from 147,100 in August 2023 to 121,900 last month. Multiplied by average international fees, that adds up to quite the hit to the sector’s overall balance sheet – as well as things like the government’s education exports target.

Here’s a summary of monthly figures:

	2022	2023	2024
January	31,100	26,900	25,500
February	9,600	5,200	3,700
March	6,200	7,800	4,800
April	9,100	9,500	9,600
May	14,100	16,900	15,500
June	31,500	38,900	28,200
July	85,000	81,900	69,500
August	144,200	147,100	121,900
September	76,600	83,500	-
October	11,300	10,400	-
November	24,700	14,800	-
December	46,200	30,600	-

Overall the decline in international applications since the PGT dependants ban has not quite plumbed the depths predicted by the gloomiest voices – the question now is which institutions have come out on top, and which have really suffered.

One remaining wrinkle is around September, which is another high volume month for recruitment. Last year it saw 83,500 student visa applications, compared to 76,600 in 2022 – a not insubstantial increase in the context of overall year-on-year numbers being slightly down.

Given uncertainty and policy change in both Canada and Australia, as well as the much-commented improved mood music from the new government here in the UK, there’s a feeling among some that students have following a wait-and-see approach, and that the UK could benefit from restrictions coming in place elsewhere.

And universities are weighing up, or being encouraged to consider, the “tactical path” of pushing the latest allowed start date further back. It’s possible that this might lead to a healthier September for applications than previous years. Healthy in terms of numbers, that is, though less healthy for international students who are missing out on welcome weeks and induction, to say nothing of arriving when available accommodation has all vanished.