What a long way we’ve come since the Coalition was formed a year ago. If the polls are right, then Thursday’s elections in local government, Wales, Scotland and the AV referendum looks likely to deliver a quadruple electoral beating for the Liberal Democrats. They knew it was a huge risk joining the Tories to form a coalition government, but they almost certainly had no idea that in just 12 months they would see such widespread collapse of their support. Thursday will be painful for them – particularly if the AV referendum is lost, as it now almost certainly will be.
Tensions are running high between Coalition partners – the spat over the conduct of the ‘No’ campaign has allowed deeply felt frustrations to bubble over. There are now even whispers of a leadership challenge from Chris Hune who seems to be relentlessly positioning himself as the anti-Tory Lib Dem member of the Cabinet.
But on Thursday, the Higher Education sector will be watching another Lib Dem heavy-hitter. Vince Cable’s journey from opposition darling to spent political force embodies the story of his party over the past two years. In the run-up to the election, and failing to anticipate ‘Cleggmania’, he was given equal footing with the party leader in the election campaign. He was seen to be an essential electoral asset – trusted, well-liked, credible (even witty as his devastating ‘Stalin to Mr Bean‘ jibe showed). But as Secretary of State, he failed so completely to negotiate a settlement for higher education funding that wouldn’t enrage, divide and aliente almost everyone as well as contradicting his own conscience, better judgement and previous political promises. The carelessness he showed over his abortive “war” on the Murdoch empire was enough to do significant and permanent harm to his reputation in every political quarter and indeed gave cause for Cameron and Clegg to strip him of some of his ministerial responsibilities. And so he emerges from a year at BIS demoralised and discredited.
On HE issues, Cable has been all but invisible for last few months – apart from a ‘centrepiece’ speech to HEFCE’s Annual Conference in April which didn’t win him any more friends or support amongst the HE sector. And those in the room saw first hand his embittered, exhausted demeanor. David Willetts has been left with the lions share of the HE brief, and despite intense criticism and scrutiny (including from Wonkhe), he does not sound like a man close to giving up. Unlike his boss.
Many now expect that David Cameron will use the opportunity of the elections and AV referendum to carry out a reshuffle of the Government – probably early next week after all the results have come in. And Vince Cable’s position looks extremely vulnerable – many have tipped him for a serious demotion or even a sacking. But any reshuffle will have to be agreed between David Cameron and Nick Clegg which will make it a more complicated and sensitive process that under one-party Governments. But Cable has become a liability for both sides of the Coalition, so his fate – it would seem – is surely sealed. Or is it?
A new Secretary of State with a fresh mandate at BIS could draw unwanted attention to the higher education policy minefield. As I wrote in early April, HE brings with it a level of hassle for the Government that they might now want to avoid at all costs. Transplanting a fresh approach and new ideas into BIS and the long-gestating HE White Paper would be a tremendous gamble. And if Willetts was promoted to the job, then a vacancy for another Liberal Democrat cabinet minister would need to be found elsewhere in Government. If Cable is sacked altogether then he could pose a great threat to Clegg from the backbenches, as he will be well-placed to attack from the left.
What’s left is a tough set of options that doesn’t leave a lot of room for manoeuvre for the Prime Minister or his Deputy. Sacking or demoting Cable causes a number of problems. But keeping him where he is might also be untenable given his record in Government. Vince Cable’s political future now hangs in the balance.
