It’s not many, and it is not representative. But October application declines are a worry.
The UCAS October deadline applies to two groups of applicants: those looking to study medicine, dentistry, or veterinary medicine; and those applying to Oxford or Cambridge.
It’s a small (around ten per cent) and very select slice of the applicant population – the majority of which (51,880, about 70 per cent) are comparatively better off 18 year olds. As such, this is not a representative sample of all applicants and is of limited predictive value for the shape of the cycle as a whole.
That said it is an important datapoint, and the number of people applying to more selective courses is in itself interesting. This year, for instance, sees a rise in mature applicants applying to medicine courses, with a particular interest among 19 year olds.
Indeed, while the overall change in 18 year old October deadline applications is a 5.6 per cent reduction, the number of 19 year olds applying has grown by 7.5 per cent, and the growth in applications among those over 21 is 3.2 per cent. Quite a lot of that astonishing 19 year old peak comes from the nearly 5,000 who have chosen to reapply after not finding a place last year (half of which are looking at medical school) – higher even than in the post-examnishambles peak of 2022.
As might be expected given student visa rates, there has been a fall in the number of international students applying at this deadline – down 7.3 per cent on last year at 22,560. While this is a very small number of students compared to the wider international population, in purely financial terms it reflects a fall in applications to some of the undergraduate courses with the highest international fees.
Though too early to make sweeping pronouncements about the state of the sector, this is not encouraging news for what has traditionally been considered an attractive corner of the market that serves applicants who are most likely to attend university.
A decline here, as we approach the top of the demographic mountain, may point to a larger problem to come in January.