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Lots of things seem to be new. But what’s really going on?
For the first time in the history of HESA data the higher education sector awarded more taught postgraduate qualifications than first degree undergraduate qualifications.
And some 64 per cent of these were awarded to non-UK students.
The number of UK undergraduates qualifiers has risen sharply over the last year (now at 379,405, even higher than the previous 2021-22 record) and the number of overseas postgraduates is also at the highest level on record.
To be clear, by looking at qualifications as submitted to HESA by the deadline we may be seeing some the impact from last year’s marking and assessment boycott, and a large fall in “other undergraduate” (not first degree) qualifications – but even so this is a landmark moment for higher education in the UK.
We are, on the whole, more confident about this year’s data than last year – but as we’ll get to I would still recommend a little consideration of some of the vagaries of collection before drawing conclusions.
It’s been widely reported that the number of entrants to higher education courses has fallen by 3 per cent – we can see that fall in every level of study apart from postgraduate research. Indeed, the overall student population is down 1 per cent (from 2,937,155 to 2,904,425), the first time we’ve seen a decline since home undergraduate fees in England rose to £9,000 in 2012.
This decline in entrants is almost entirely due to a drop in international taught postgraduate student numbers (down 10 per cent on last year), although UK undergraduate numbers are also down very slightly (1.5 per cent) when compared to last year. On the latter, we should bear in mind that the 2024 UCAS cycle (2024-25 entry) showed a rise in placed home undergraduate students. So most of the story is one of a change in government visa policy (and a general perception of a hostile environment) rather than saying anything meaningful about the quality and value of UK higher education.
Here’s how the headline 2023-24 decline in numbers has played out on a provider-by-provider basis (you can filter by level, mode, and domicile):
What’s notable is that we have seen a second small wave of individual providers expanding rapidly – Bath Spa, Arden, and Oxford Brookes – plus continued expansion at Canterbury Christ Church. The only real ways to demonstrate expansion at this pace are franchise agreements or online/blended provision.
In terms of international recruitment, this release sees HESA provide data for the “top ten” countries – there’s no great surprises for anyone familiar with recent UCAS data, and the much documented sharp decline in recruitment from Nigeria and India is present and correct. The fastest growing domicile for international students in the the UK between 2022-23 and 2023-24 was Pakistan.
The statistical release represents the first sighting of data from the 2023-24 Student collection (known to fans as 23056, the second iteration of data collected using the Data Futures data model). As before, HESA has done a superb job in documenting concerns and anomalies within the data – there appears to be less systemic issues relating to the whole collection, and many of the entries relate to the correction of problems identified last year.