Who leaves compulsory education and what do they do?
Anyone who argues for substantially lower participation in higher education needs to provide at least some sense of what else they expect the 18-24 population to be doing and how it will be funded.
The idea that there are huge numbers of well-paid, rewarding, careers out there for non-graduates – if it ever was true – certainly isn’t true any more. The latest figures from the Department for Education suggest that just over 60 per cent of those not in education or training (NET) aged 18-21 are in employment. And this proportion has fallen from more than 70 per cent at the start of the century.
The remainder (not in education, employment or training – NEET) are an interesting bunch, . Half of all young (16-24) NEETs have some form of health condition – including 20 per cent with a mental health condition and around 12 per cent with a learning difficulty or autism). These two categories have grown sharply in both NEET and the entire population since 2012, and are proportionally overrepresented in the NEET category (other health conditions occur in broadly similar proportions among NEET and non-NEET populations).
The proportion of NEET young people is rising slightly year on year when you compare each quarter, though we are well under the peaks of the financial crisis era. As we are approaching a (2031) peak in the number of 18 year olds, this small proportional rise represents a growth of more than 100,000 people.
Roughly half of NEETs are currently looking for work, and are characterised as either short-term (less than 6 months, 3.7 per cent of 16-24 population) or long-term (more than 6 months, 1.6 per cent). The remainder are categorised as “inactive” either through illness (3.0 per cent), looking after the family or home (1.2 per cent), or for other reasons (including gap years, waiting for a start date, or not wanting to participate, 3.2 per cent).
I’ve shown quarterly rates where available, because NEET rates exhibit seasonal patterns based on the annual academic cycle. Rates are lower in autumn (Q4 October to December) followed by a gradual rise in spring and early summer (Q1 January to June) with a peak in late summer (Q3 July to September).
Any trimming of higher education numbers would either force young people into other forms of education or training (with a lower historic chance of leading to a fulfilling career:) or expand the pool of NEETs. And NEETs themselves are a stubborn component of a young population that is finding it increasingly difficult to make a start in life.