England, student living away from home outside London. Three families all start on a £25,000 household income – the maximum-support threshold – in 2007, 2016 and today. Their income then grows with average earnings while the £25,000 threshold stays frozen, so they slide down the means-test taper. The chart compares the loan they actually get with the loan they'd get if the maximum had been uprated by real RPIX.
Source: max loan = DfE/SLC maintenance loan rates (2016/17–2026/27 actual, 2027/28+ RPIX-projected). "Had RPIX applied" uprates the max by actual/forecast RPIX Q1 (OBR March 2026, Table 1.7). Family incomes grow with ONS average weekly earnings (total pay) from their £25k base year; taper modelled on the current structure (minimum ≈47% of max, upper threshold ~£62,400, reproducing the published £6.64/£6.47 steps). Illustrative; assumes each family tracks average earnings exactly.